Microsoft Research’s David Rothschild makes predictions for world’s premier soccer tournament

David Rothschild, a Microsoft researcher and economist, has aimed his forecasting skills toward the world’s premier soccer event beginning in Brazil Thursday.

Past posts have examined Rothschild’s efforts to produce accurate forecasts for events such as the 2012 U.S. presidential election, the 2013 and 2014 Academy Awards, the 2014 NCAA men’s basketball tournament and, most recently, India’s general election.

Rothschild will be watching intently, though his interest might differ a bit from the nationalistic fervor of most the tournament’s other adherents. For him, this is simply the latest step in an ongoing attempt to fine-tune increasingly accurate prediction models that can be applied to domains far afield from the pitch.

Right now, Rothschild’s model bears a striking resemblance to that of Betfair, a U.K. betting exchange that supplies some of the data that fuel Rothschild’s models. Both currently have Brazil with the highest likelihood of success, a reasonable assumption given the host country’s winning history.

Head over to Inside Microsoft Research to read more about Rothschild’s predictions for the biggest tournament celebrating “the beautiful game.”

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Athima Chansanchai
Microsoft News Center Staff