Lots of us have our own predictions about the Oscars. But when David Rothschild shares his, we pay attention. Rothschild, an economist from Microsoft Research New York City, uses data from prediction markets to make his forecasts, and last year he correctly forecast winners in 19 of the 24 Academy Award categories. His predictions for winners of this year’s awards are out.
“I learned a lot from 2013 that will help me make more accurate predictions in 2014,” he says in an interview on the Inside Microsoft Research blog. “My colleagues and I worked through statistical models, unique polling data, and several forms of prediction-market data for 2013. We saw the pros and cons of the various methods and have incorporated new methodology for 2014.”
So who’s going to win on March 2, according to Rothschild? Among his predictions, for “Best Director,” Alfonso Cuarón for “Gravity,” and for “Best Leading Actor,” Matthew McConaughey for “Dallas Buyers Club.”
To read the full interview, head over to the Inside Microsoft Research blog.
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Microsoft News Center Staff